Recent research by climate modelers Kevin Hamilton and Takatoshi Sakazaki at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) investigated the possibility of using historical observations after large equatorial volcanic eruptions to learn about the properties of the winds in the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere 10–30 miles above Earth’s surface.
Detailed tracking of stratospheric winds in the tropics has only been possible since regular weather balloon soundings began at some near-equatorial stations in the early 1950s. One particularly predictable pattern that has emerged is in the winds along the equator, which show regular swings in the prevailing wind direction from easterlies to westerlies and back, roughly every couple of years (28 months on average).
This pattern, called the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), had a surprising hiccup in 2016, breaking a routine that had lasted for at least 27 cycles. The disruption in the predictability of the QBO pattern prompted many to consider how to understand the QBO better in order to predict when the reliable pattern may change again and affect the European winter weather patterns that follow it.
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Image via University of Hawaii.