We do not have to look as far away as the glaciers in Norway, the fires in Australia or the floods in Brazil to see the effects of climate change. In Spain, changes are also starting to show and they will multiply in the following years. And not only will the climate be affected, but also social and economic aspects as well.
A study by the University of Cordoba and the Centre for Research in Geospace Science (abbreviated to CICGE, at Porto University, Portugal) sought to investigate how climate change will affect one of the main economic pillars in the region of Andalusia: the olive sector. They used a tool known as a Species Distribution Model, that predicts suitable areas for the presence of a species in accordance with environmental features. First, the changes that will occur in the Andalusian climate and how they will influence the distribution of the main olive varieties grown in Andalusia were studied. Next, they estimated, province by province, what olive production will look like in the next 20, 50 and 80 years based on the change that will occur in suitable areas.
“The study shows that there will be a reduction in the amount of area available for growing most of the olive varieties studied. This will be mainly due to less rainfall and loss of soil humidity”, says Salvador Arenas Castro, CIGCE researcher, who collaborated with the University of Cordoba and is the lead author of the study.
In the case of the Nevadillo olive variety, grown in the Cordoba province part of the Sierra Morena, it is estimated that by 2100, there will no longer be any area fit for farming. Climate change will also significantly affect Manzanilla, Lechín and Picudo varieties. “If these predictive models foretell major losses in areas suitable for the most common olive varieties, local varieties will run a high risk of disappearing as they are grown in much smaller areas with more specific climate conditions and therefore, are much more vulnerable to climate change”, he warns.
Read more at University of Córdoba
Image: Rafael Villar and Salvador Arenas Castro, investigators. (Credit: Universidad de Córdoba)