Inspired by the same modeling and mathematical laws used to predict the spread of pandemics, researchers at Texas A&M University have created a model to accurately forecast the spread and recession process of floodwaters in urban road networks. With this new approach, researchers have created a simple and powerful mathematical approach to a complex problem.
“We were inspired by the fact that the spread of epidemics and pandemics in communities has been studied by people in health sciences and epidemiology and other fields, and they have identified some principles and rules that govern the spread process in complex social networks,” said Dr. Ali Mostafavi, associate professor in the Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. “So we ask ourselves, are these spreading processes the same for the spread of flooding in cities? We tested that, and surprisingly, we found that the answer is yes.”
The findings of this study were recently published in Nature Scientific Reports.
The contagion model, Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR), is used to mathematically model the spread of infectious diseases. In relation to flooding, Mostafavi and his team integrated the SEIR model with the network spread process in which the probability of flooding of a road segment depends on the degree to which the nearby road segments are flooded.
Read more at Texas A&M University
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