Correctly simulating ocean current variations hundreds of feet below the ocean surface—the so-called Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent—during El Niño events is key in reducing the uncertainty of predictions of future warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. That was revealed in a new study led by University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa researchers and published in Nature Communications.
Trade winds and temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean experience large changes from year-to-year due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, affecting weather patterns across the globe. For example, if the tropical Pacific is warmer and trade winds are weaker than usual—an El Niño event—flooding in California typically occurs and monsoons in India and East Asia are detrimental to local rice production. In contrast, during a La Niña, the global weather patterns reverse with cooler temperatures and stronger trade winds in the tropical Pacific.
In Hawaiʻi, during El Niño there is usually less winter rainfall, larger surf on the north shore, and a higher chance for tropical cyclones threatening the islands. During La Niña, we typically see the reversed pattern for Hawaiʻi. These natural climate swings affect ecosystems, fisheries, agriculture and many other aspects of human society.
Computer models that are used for projecting future climates correctly predict global warming due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, as well as short-term year-to-year natural climate variations associated with El Niño and La Niña.
Read more at University of Hawaii at Manoa
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