With detected cases of COVID-19 relatively low on Vancouver Island and the province of BC lauded internationally for its comparative success in handling the global pandemic, it'’'s no surprise some residents see a reason to celebrate.
But British Columbians have been warned that celebrations, and especially large in-person gatherings, continue to be discouraged. While the province has gradually re-opened in recent months, much uncertainty remains given the unpredictable ebb and flow of new cases. This uncertainty is partly due to the unknown number of hidden cases.
Asymptomatic patients, limitations on testing, and misreporting of symptoms, among other factors, mean that unknown COVID-19 cases are going uncounted. Scientists, including mathematical modellers, need to be able to estimate the detection rate so as to evaluate the risk of future waves and the impact of re-opening.
In research funded by the Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research, and in partnership with Victoria Hospitals Foundation and the Canadian Statistical Sciences Institute, Cowen is leading work to uncover this mystery.
Continue reading at University of Victoria.
Image via University of Victoria.