Coastal communities face increasing danger from rising water and storms, but the level of risk will be more closely tied to policy decisions regarding development than the varying conditions associated with climate change, new research by Oregon State University suggests.

The findings, published in the journal Water, provide an important framework for managing the interactions between human-made and natural systems in cities and towns along shorelines as the Earth continues to warm, the researchers said.

Professor Peter Ruggiero of OSU’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences and John Bolte, chair of OSU’s Biological and Ecological Engineering program, led the study, which employed a modeling platform known as Envision to quantify the expected effects of flooding and erosion on buildings and infrastructure as well as beach accessibility through the remainder of the 21st century.

Read More: Oregon State University

Rip-rap at Neskowin, Oregon (Photo Credit: Steve Dundas, Oregon State)