The Paris Climate Agreement goal to limit global warming this century to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) over pre-industrial temperatures is still within reach, while apocalyptic, worst-case scenarios are no longer plausible, suggests a new CU Boulder analysis.
Out today in Environmental Research Letters, the new study finds a subset of climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) most in line with recent data and International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts to 2050 project between 3.6 and 5.4 degrees F (2 and 3 C) of warming by 2100, with a median of 3.96 F (2.2 C) degrees. In comparison, some implausible, worst-case scenarios have projected as much as 7.2 or 9 F (4 or 5 C) degrees of warming by the end of the century.
“This is cautiously optimistic good news with respect to where the world is today, compared to where we thought we might be,” said lead author Roger Pielke Jr., professor of environmental studies. “The two-degree target from Paris remains within reach.”
In order to explore and plan for possible futures, the climate research community uses scenarios: forecasts of how the future might evolve based on factors such as projected greenhouse gas emissions and different possible climate policies.
Read more at University of Colorado at Boulder
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