A region of cooling water in the North Atlantic Ocean near Iceland, nicknamed the “Blue Blob,” has likely slowed the melting of the island’s glaciers since 2011 and may continue to stymie ice loss until about 2050, according to new research.
The origin and cause of the Blue Blob, which is located south of Iceland and Greenland, is still being investigated. The cold patch was most prominent during the winter of 2014-2015 when the sea surface temperature was about 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.52 degrees Fahrenheit) colder than normal.
The new study uses climate models and field observations to show that the cold water patch chilled the air over Iceland sufficiently to slow ice loss starting in 2011. The model predicts cooler water will persist in the North Atlantic, sparing Iceland’s glaciers until about 2050. Ocean and air temperatures are predicted to increase between 2050 and 2100, leading to accelerated melting.
While cooler water in the North Atlantic offers a temporary respite for Iceland’s glaciers, the authors estimate that without steps to mitigate climate change, the glaciers could lose a third of their current ice volume by 2100 and be gone by 2300. If the country’s 3,400 cubic kilometers (about 816 cubic miles) of ice melt, sea level will rise by 9 millimeters (0.35 inches).
Read more at American Geophysical Union
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