The death rate linked to extreme temperatures will increase significantly under global warming of 2°C, finds a report by researchers from UCL and the University of Reading.
Temperature-related mortality – where a death is directly linked to climate temperature – in England and Wales during the hottest days of the year will increase by 42% under a warming scenario of 2°C from pre-industrial levels. This means an increase from present-day levels of around 117 deaths per day, averaged over the 10 hottest days of the year, to around 166 deaths per day. The findings underline the importance of keeping global warming levels to below 2°C.
At current global warming levels of around 1.21°C we see a slight decrease in temperature-related mortality in winter and a minimal net effect in summer, meaning that overall, at this level of warming we see a slight decrease in temperature-related mortality rate.
In the paper, published in Environmental Research Letters, the team examined the impact of climate change on temperature-related mortality rates in England and Wales, focusing on the risk from heat in summer and cold in winter. They found that as the global mean temperature increases, temperature-related mortality in summer will increase at a much faster, non-linear rate.
Read more at University College London
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