Scientists investigating the growth of arctic vegetation have found that seed dispersal and fire will slow its land expansion in the long term, despite more favorable conditions from a warming planet.
Previous estimates predicted that arctic shrubs — stubby, dense bushes that cover much of the tundra region — would eventually conquer about 39% of the non-shrub area in the Arctic. But a new analysis suggests the flora will only be able to expand into 25% of the area’s tundra by the year 2100, said Yanlan Liu, lead author of the study and an assistant professor of earth sciences at the Ohio State University.
The study, published in the journal Nature Communications, examined patterns of shrub growth in the past and then applied an array of environmental variables, including precipitation, elevation and days when the temperature was above 5 degrees Celsius, to determine what may happen in the future.
Read more at Ohio State University
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