Climate models are unreliable when it comes to predicting the damage that tropical cyclones will do to sensitive coral reefs, according to a new study published in the journal Earth’s Future.
With the expectation that tropical cyclones will increase in intensity with climate change, there has been interest among conservationists to use the models to identify the vulnerability of reef communities to storm damage, and to target conservation and protection efforts at those coral reefs that are less likely to be impacted by climate change.
But a team of researchers from the University of Leeds, the Australian Institute for Marine Science and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CISRO) is urging caution when using the climate models, arguing they are not yet reliable enough to determine which reefs will be most at risk from cyclone damage.
Cyclones are a moving weather system that create storm conditions including heavy rainfall, waves and powerful circular winds. The most damaging weather is found close to the eye of a cyclone, an area with a typical diameter of about 50 km.
Read more at University of Leeds
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