The transition to an environmentally sustainable economy has begun, but it will be a generation (about twenty years) before we will see moderation of global warming. The cost of reducing climate pollution faster would be an economic and political disaster. Slowing or shutting down economic growth would destabilize politics, and, given the rapidly advancing technology of arms and destruction, that instability would be more destructive than the impact of climate change. The pace of the transition to a renewable resource-based economy depends on the development and adoption of new energy and waste processing technologies. It is difficult to predict how fast that process will be, but the sunk costs in existing technologies will only be discarded when new technologies are clearly better, cheaper, and more reliable than what they replace. The idea that climate pollution can be eliminated by political edict overestimates political power and underestimates economic power. It is not simply powerful economic interests that influence public policy, but the sense of economic well-being perceived and experienced by the mass public. The maintenance of that sense of well-being is a critical foundation of political stability. The transition to a renewable resource-based economy must be careful to reinforce and not undermine that sense of well-being. The fact that this transition will take time does not diminish our sense of urgency about its necessity, but it is important that we deal with the world that we live in rather than the one we might wish for.
This summer of fire, floods, and intense heat makes it clear that decarbonization must accelerate. But our work on protecting our communities from the impact of extreme weather events is even more urgent. While there continues to be discussion of “managed retreat” from low-lying areas vulnerable to flooding, the widespread geography of extreme weather indicates that you can run but you can’t hide from climate impacts. Perhaps we should move from the Jersey shore to the Green Mountains of Vermont: Oops, that won’t work, Vermont just got hit with two months’ worth of rain in a few days. Perhaps we could move to small towns in the Midwest: Nope, they’ve got those tornadoes along with overflowing rivers as well. Maybe we should move out west near the forests: Oh yeah, drought and electrical sparks are causing massive fires. Forget retreat, managed or under conditions of panic, we need to build a stronger and more resilient built environment. And the need is urgent. Drainage systems, dams, buildings, transportation, and energy systems must be built to withstand the rains, wind, heat, and cold of climate-accelerated extreme weather events. The impact of extreme weather is massive and growing. According to Christopher Flavelle of the New York Times:
Read more at: Columbia Climate School
Photo credit: Leonhard_Niederwimmer