If global temperatures keep rising and reach 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, people worldwide could face multiple impacts of climate change simultaneously. This is according to a NASA-led study that analyzed the projected impacts of such warming to understand how different climate effects might combine. A 2-degree rise in global temperatures is considered a critical threshold above which dangerous and cascading effects of human-generated climate change will occur.
The researchers found that more than a quarter of the world’s population could experience an additional month of severe heat stress each year compared to the middle of the 20th century (1950-1979). High temperatures and drought could combine dangerously in places like the Amazon, increasing the risk of wildfire. In the American West, extreme fire weather will likely be more intense and last longer.
To investigate potentially compounding effects of rising temperatures, the study’s authors worked with a specially processed set of climate predictions. The predictions were originally generated by 35 of the world’s leading climate models – specifically, contributors to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which includes models developed by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. CMIP provides climate projections that help the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other international and national climate groups understand historical, current, and future climate changes.
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Image: This map shows global change in a measure called “fire weather index” (FWI) predicted by the study's analysis for the year 2045 (red: greater extreme fire weather; blue: less.) FWI captures a combination of conditions, including low rainfall and high winds, that together increase a region’s extreme fire weather condition. Analysis by the NASA Earth Exchange of high-resolution climate projections concludes that, if global temperatures keep rising and reach 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, people worldwide could face multiple impacts of climate change simultaneously, with serious consequences. (Credits: NASA/Taejin Park)