Researchers at Lancaster University Management School (LUMS) are on a quest to bring together experts to predict hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean.
The Climate Risk and Uncertainty Collective Intelligence Aggregation Laboratory (CRUCIAL) – a joint initiative between Lancaster and Exeter Universities – is opening its first prediction market to forecast the number of Atlantic hurricanes in the 2024 season.
Hurricanes cause destruction to human life, infrastructure, and the natural environment, with the social, health and economic effects being felt across business and society.
The likely frequency and intensity of hurricanes is valuable information for reinsurance companies that cover hurricane risks as well as planners responsible for the resilience of infrastructure.
“Changing ocean temperatures, driven by climate change, mean that the historical record of hurricanes is no longer a good guide to predict future hurricanes”, explains Dr Kim Kaivanto, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Economics in LUMS and a member of the CRUCIAL initiative.
Read more at: Lancaster University
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