A team of researchers at the University of Waterloo is using mathematical models to help determine the best strategies for saving coral reefs from climate change.

As havens of biodiversity, coral reefs are some of the world's most important ecosystems – and some of the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. While the world's reefs face numerous intersecting threats, the Waterloo team focused on predicting outbreaks of crown-of-thorns (CoT) starfish.

"They are covered in toxic spikes, so they don't have a lot of natural predators," said Russell Milne, a recent PhD graduate in applied mathematics and the study's corresponding author. "They also reproduce by dispersing their larvae into the open water – so if you have a starfish outbreak in one area, the entire reef will be affected."

CoT starfish are invertebrates that eat coral at an alarming rate. A large outbreak can destroy a coral reef in as little as a month. Scientists have noticed that CoT outbreaks have dramatically increased over the last thirty years due to industrial development and warming ocean temperatures.

Read more at University of Waterloo

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