New insight on the death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide has been published in the open-access eLife journal.
Comparing the impact of COVID-19 between countries or during a given period of time is challenging because reported numbers of cases and deaths can be affected by testing capacity and reporting policy. The current study provides a more accurate picture of the effects of COVID-19 than using these numbers, and may improve our understanding of this and future pandemics.
In any given period of time, a certain number of people die due to many particular reasons, such as old age, illness, violence, traffic accidents and more. Researchers are able to predict the number of deaths from these causes over coming months or years, known as expected deaths, using the same information gathered from previous months and years. However, pandemics, conflicts, and natural and man-made disasters cause additional deaths above and beyond those expected, which are known as ‘excess deaths’.
“Measuring excess deaths allows us to quantify, monitor and track pandemics such as COVID-19 in a way that goes above testing and reporting capacity and policy,” says Ariel Karlinsky, a graduate student at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel, and co-author alongside research scientist Dmitry Kobak, from Tübingen University, Germany. “However, until now, there has been no global, frequently updated repository of mortality data across countries.”
Read more at eLife
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